Public Policy Polling

Hillary over 50 even in Massachusetts

-More than 50% of Democrats in Massachusetts want Hillary Clinton to be their candidate for President in 2016. In a sense that's unremarkable- it's what we find everywhere we poll. But what makes it remarkable in Massachusetts is that she's over 50% despite the fact that we included 2 Bay State politicians- Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren- and she's still over 50%. 55% would like her to be the nominee to 17% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Warren, Patrick, and Andrew Cuomo, and 1% for Martin O'Malley. It's just another data point of how overwhelming the desire is for Hillary in 2016.

-Our first look at Senator Elizabeth Warren's approval numbers finds 44% of voters approving of her to 39% who disapprove. That +5 net approval is pretty much in line with her 8 point margin of victory last fall. Deval Patrick's approval rating is 48/41- the 48% approval is identical to what we found when we last polled on him in October.

-We're coming up on the 9th anniversary of gay marriage being legal in Massachusetts, and only 15% of voters in the state think its being legal has had a negative impact on life there. 25% believe it's had a positive impact and 60% don't think it's had any effect on them one way or the other. Overall 58% of Massachusetts voters support gay marriage to just 32% opposed.

Wide open in Massachusetts

PPP's first comprehensive look at next year's race for Governor in Massachusetts finds that voters are largely unfamiliar with the potential candidates, making it pretty wide open.

The one exception to that rule is if Scott Brown decides to make a race of it. Despite working as a Fox News commentator and openly flirting with running for office in another state, he remains quite popular with 53% of Massachusetts voters seeing him favorably to 35% with a negative opinion. Brown leads all the potential Democratic candidates we tested by anywhere from 4 to 18 points. William Galvin comes closest at 43-39, followed by Mike Capuano at 45-38, Steve Grossman at 46-34, Joe Avellone, Don Berwick, and Mo Cowan who each trail by 17 at 46/29, 47/30, and 48/31 respectively, and Carmen Ortiz who trails 49/31.

One reason the Democrats all trail Brown by so much is that they're largely unknown. Galvin has the highest name recognition but even he is known only to 52% of voters in the state. He's followed in familiarity by Capuano at 46%, Grossman and Ortiz at 34%, Cowan at 28%, Avellone at 19%, and Berwick at 17%. Asked who out of that crew they'd like as their candidate for Governor next year, 44% of Democrats say they'd prefer someone else or that they're not sure. Capuano leads the way among those who have an opinion with 17% to 13% for Galvin, 6% for Grossman, 5% for Avellone and Ortiz, and 4% for Berwick and Cowan.

Sanford has momentum in SC-1

PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.

Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

While Colbert Busch is seen as too liberal, 48% of voters think that Sanford's views are 'about right' on the issues compared to just 38% who see him as too conservative. Sanford's also seen some repair to his image over the course of the campaign. Although he's still unpopular, sporting a -11 net favorability rating at 43/54, that's up a net 13 points from our first poll in March when he was at 34/58.

If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don't like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin. President Obama doesn't fare a whole lot better in the district. His approval is 39/54, and voters say they have a higher opinion of Sanford than him by a 48/44 spread.

Markey starts general with 4 point lead

PPP's first poll of the general election in the Massachusetts Senate special finds a close race, with Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44-40 margin.

Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he's at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He's at 31/50 with independents.

For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He's up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.

To put Gomez's 16 point lead with independents in context though, our final poll in the 2010 special election found Scott Brown winning them by a 64/32 margin. So he still has a long way to go to replicate the formula that let Brown pull off that upset.

Question Suggestions: Music and Hipsters Poll

For our next national poll we're going to include several questions on music and hipsters.

Feel free to include your suggestions for both topics in the comments.

We're planning on asking questions such as:

- Favorite genre of music

- Favorable v. unfavorable opinion of various genres of music - rock, rap, country, etc

- Favorability rating for famous singers and musicians, past and present - The Beatles, Michael Jackson, Taylor Swift, Rihanna, etc

- Who would you most like to see as President

- Favorable v. unfavorable opinion of hipsters

- Do you consider yourself to be a hipster

What else?  Suggestions appreciated as always. Anything with a clever political angle to it is great too.  Thanks!

Hagan, Landrieu gun votes could help in 2014

PPP's newest round of polling finds that Kay Hagan and Mary Landrieu helped their cause for reelection with their recent votes in support of background checks for gun sales. More than 70% of voters in each of their states support such checks, and their constituents say they're more likely to vote for them next year because of their votes.

In Louisiana 72% of voters say they favor background checks to only 20% who are opposed. There is strong bipartisan backing with Democrats (81/13), independents (73/20), and Republicans (61/29) all expressing at least 2:1 support. 45% of voters in the state say they're now more likely to support Landrieu for reelection because she voted for background checks, compared to only 25% who say they're now less likely to vote for her. Landrieu has also seen a 6 point improvement in her net approval rating from the last time we polled the state in February, from +2 then at 47/45 to now +8 at 49/41.

It's a similar story in North Carolina. There 73% of voters support background checks with only 22% opposed. Again there is a strong consensus across party lines with more than 60% of Democrats (86/11), independents (67/28), and Republicans (61/34) all supporting them.  52% of voters say they're more inclined to reelect Hagan next year because she voted for background checks, while only 26% of voters say they will be less likely to support her because of it.

Question Suggestions: Massachusetts, National, SC-1

We didn't do any electoral polls last weekend but we're going to make up for it over the course of this week with surveys in Massachusetts, nationally, and in SC-1.

The Massachusetts poll will go in the field tomorrow and we'll get a first look at whether this could be a repeat of the 2010 special Senate election or not. We'll also look ahead to next year's race for Governor, so let us know who you think we should be testing for that, as well as any other things you think we need to poll about in Massachusetts.

We'll do our national poll over the weekend with the standard 2016 stuff, look at Obama's approval rating and the generic Congressional ballot, etc. Please let us know what other issues you think we should be asking about on our national poll. We also like to have a section of our national poll devoted to more off beat polling topics- conspiracy theories and food have been some recent ones- so if you have any ideas along those lines we would love to hear them.

And finally on Saturday and Sunday we'll take a last look at the special election for Congress in South Carolina. If you have suggestions for questions beyond what we've already been asking on those polls please let us know.

Thanks as always for the good poll suggestions!

More backlash against Senators on gun vote

New PPP polls in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Ohio find serious backlash against the 5 Senators who voted against background checks in those states. Each of them has seen their approval numbers decline, and voters say they're less likely to support them the next time they're up for reelection. That's no surprise given that we continue to find overwhelming, bipartisan support for background checks in these states.

Here's the state by state rundown:

-After just 3 months in office Jeff Flake has already become one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. Just 32% of voters approve of him to 51% who disapprove and that -19 net approval rating makes him the most unpopular sitting Senator we've polled on, taking that label from Mitch McConnell.

70% of Arizona voters support background checks to only 26% who are opposed to them. That includes 92/6 favor from Democrats, 71/24 from independents, and 50/44 from Republicans. 52% of voters say they're less likely to support Flake in a future election because of this vote, compared to only 19% who say they're more likely to. Additionally voters say by a 21 point margin, 45/24, that they trust senior colleague John McCain more than Flake when it comes to gun issues.

-When we polled Alaska in February Lisa Murkowski was one of the most popular Senators in the country with a 54% approval rating and only 33% of voters disapproving of her. She's seen a precipitous decline in the wake of her background checks vote though. Her approval is down a net 16 points from that +21 standing to +5 with 46% of voters approving and 41% now disapproving of her. Murkowski has lost most of her appeal to Democrats in the wake of her vote, with her numbers with them going from 59/25 to 44/44. And the vote hasn't increased her credibility with Republican either- she was at 51/38 with them in February and she's at 50/39 now.

Mark Begich is down following his no vote as well. He was at 49/39 in February and now he's at 41/37. His popularity has declined with Democrats (from 76/17 to 59/24) and with independents (from 54/32 to 43/35), and there has been no corresponding improvement with Republicans. He had a 24% approval rating with them two months ago and he has a 24% approval rating with them now.

60% of Alaska voters support background checks to just 35% opposed, including a 62/33 spread with independents. 39% of voters say they're less likely to vote for each of Begich and Murkowski in their next elections based on this vote, while only 22% and 26% say they're more likely to vote for Begich and Murkowski respectively because of this.

Paul rising in New Hampshire

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.

Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.

Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).

On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.

Ayotte faces backlash over gun vote

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire: